What is Open Interest? How to use it to make money?
A contract
has both a buyer and a seller, so the two market players combine to make one
contract. The open-interest position that is reported each day represents the
increase or decrease in the number of contracts for that day, and it is shown
as a positive or negative number. An increase in open interest along with an
increase in price is said to confirm an upward trend. Similarly, an increase in
open interest along with a decrease in price confirms a downward trend. An
increase or decrease in prices while open interest remains flat or declining
may indicate a possible trend reversal.
Rules of Open Interest
Now, there are certain rules to open interest that must be understood and remembered.
Rules of Open Interest
Now, there are certain rules to open interest that must be understood and remembered.
- If prices are rising and open interest is increasing at
a rate faster than its five-year seasonal average, this is a bullish sign.
More participants are entering the market, involving additional buying,
and any purchases are generally aggressive in nature.
- If the open-interest numbers flatten following a rising
trend in both price and open interest, take this as a warning sign of an
impending top.
- High open interest at market tops is a bearish signal
if the price drop is sudden, since this will force many 'weak' longs to
liquidate. Occasionally, such conditions set off a self-feeding, downward
spiral.
- An unusually high or record open interest in a bull
market is a danger signal. When a rising trend of open interest begins to
reverse, expect a bear trend to get underway.
- A breakout from a trading range will be much stronger
if open interest rises during the consolidation. This is because many
traders will be caught on the wrong side of the market when the breakout
finally takes place. When the price moves out of the trading range, these
traders are forced to abandon their positions. It is possible to take this
rule one step further and say the greater the rise in open interest during
the consolidation, the greater the potential for the subsequent move.
- Rising prices and a decline in open interest at a rate
greater than the seasonal norm is bearish. This market condition develops
because short covering and not fundamental demand is fueling the rising
price trend. In these circumstances money is flowing out of the market.
Consequently, when the short covering has run its course, prices will
decline.
- If prices are declining and the open interest rises
more than the seasonal average, this indicates that new short positions
are being opened. As long as this process continues it is a bearish
factor, but once the shorts begin to cover it turns bullish.
- A decline in both price and open interest indicates
liquidation by discouraged traders with long positions. As long as this
trend continues, it is a bearish sign. Once open interest stabilizes at a
low level, the liquidation is over and prices are then in a position to
rally again.
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