Get the Right Economic Data

Get the Right Economic data

Anyone who has read the Economic Survey, or heard various government functionaries over the years, knows that India is experiencing jobless growth, or near-jobless growth at least. 

As compared to an economic growth of 7.9% per year over the last decade, the Economic Survey tells us, total employment in the country in both public as well as private sector jobs grew by just 1.6% per year. 

At $32.5 billion for Q3, India’s current account deficit (CAD) is equally problematic, and at 6.7% of GDP, it is the highest India has ever seen in its history. 

After discounting this since there is an element of double-counting, it turns out India’s employment growth in the decade was lower than GDP growth, but at 7.4% per year, there is no way India had jobless growth. In other words, many of India’s policies – such as the lack of an exit policy—have been predicated on incorrect data. In the case of the CAD, a lot depends on what you take as oil imports in Q3—$44 billion as the DGFT data puts it or $39 billion as the petroleum ministry says it is. 

There are several other such instances of senseless data—at times the WPI and CPI appear to be reflective of two dramatically different economic realities—that a lot of economic policy making, including by RBI, is nothing but shooting in the dark. That’s an issue where progress continues to remain poor.