USDINR all time low- Currency Depreciation - Rupee Falling - What to do? Currency Futures Options Trading
The rupee fell as dollar gained following disappointing data from China and slightly better-than-expected US jobs data, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve might curb its asset purchases later this year.
According to analysts, foreign investors have been heavy sellers in recent weeks of Indian debt, which is worrisome for a country which depends heavily on foreign flows to finance its current account deficit and support its markets.
According to analysts, the fall is largely triggered by broad gains in the dollar that is also hitting other emerging currencies such as the Japanese Yen over worries about a potential end to the U.S. stimulus programme.
Dollar's longer-term bullish outlook is expected to remain intact as the Fed will eventually start scaling down its stimulus if jobs keep on adding to its kitty.
Most analysts expect dollar index to hit 88 levels by year-end and the outlook for rupee remains bearish with target of Rs 58-60 against US dollar.
We have collated views and recommendations from various experts on rupee and its future outlook:
Abhishek Goenka, Founder & CEO, India Forex Advisors
The rupee is currently on a free fall breaching the head and shoulder pattern at 55.20. The major reason that we foresee behind rupee depreciation is the rise in US treasury yield, which is leading to the unwinding of carry trade in USD/INR. The unwinding moves are very brutal and fast that's what we are seeing in rupee.
Going ahead, as long as the USD/INR is above 57.10, we expect the pair to move towards 58-60 in this week.
Shardul Kulkarni, senior technical analyst at Angel Broking
Last week, the equity market participants have finally been forced to take notice of the rupee. Despite all efforts by the government to reign in the trade deficit, the rupee continues to be a cause of concern.
We were also fortunate to get substantial inflows via FII investments. Despite of all these factors, the rupee is now trading almost near its all-time low. The consistent demand for the greenback is on account of the yellow metal. The technical outlook on the rupee suggests that 58 may soon be tested.
Saurabh Mukherjea, Head of Equities, Ambit Capital
I would rather focus on the fact that FII appetite for India still remains healthy, a big portion of long-only focused FIIs are still focused on increasing the exposure to India and that bodes very well for us going into the months of June and July.
Manisha Gupta, Editor - Currency and Commodities, ET Now
Investors are worried over the outcome of the Indian elections (expected early next year) and its impact on the economy and the Rupee. In the near term, they would keenly await the trade data, IIP & inflation data next week and the RBI policy review on June 17th to get some idea on the policy moves.
Most Indian bankers are not ruling out a possibility of the rupee correcting a per cent or two from current levels. However, they expect the RBI to come in and intervene and stop the rupee from the kind of fall it witnessed in the month of May.
According to analysts, foreign investors have been heavy sellers in recent weeks of Indian debt, which is worrisome for a country which depends heavily on foreign flows to finance its current account deficit and support its markets.
According to analysts, the fall is largely triggered by broad gains in the dollar that is also hitting other emerging currencies such as the Japanese Yen over worries about a potential end to the U.S. stimulus programme.
Dollar's longer-term bullish outlook is expected to remain intact as the Fed will eventually start scaling down its stimulus if jobs keep on adding to its kitty.
Most analysts expect dollar index to hit 88 levels by year-end and the outlook for rupee remains bearish with target of Rs 58-60 against US dollar.
We have collated views and recommendations from various experts on rupee and its future outlook:
Abhishek Goenka, Founder & CEO, India Forex Advisors
The rupee is currently on a free fall breaching the head and shoulder pattern at 55.20. The major reason that we foresee behind rupee depreciation is the rise in US treasury yield, which is leading to the unwinding of carry trade in USD/INR. The unwinding moves are very brutal and fast that's what we are seeing in rupee.
Going ahead, as long as the USD/INR is above 57.10, we expect the pair to move towards 58-60 in this week.
Shardul Kulkarni, senior technical analyst at Angel Broking
Last week, the equity market participants have finally been forced to take notice of the rupee. Despite all efforts by the government to reign in the trade deficit, the rupee continues to be a cause of concern.
We were also fortunate to get substantial inflows via FII investments. Despite of all these factors, the rupee is now trading almost near its all-time low. The consistent demand for the greenback is on account of the yellow metal. The technical outlook on the rupee suggests that 58 may soon be tested.
Saurabh Mukherjea, Head of Equities, Ambit Capital
I would rather focus on the fact that FII appetite for India still remains healthy, a big portion of long-only focused FIIs are still focused on increasing the exposure to India and that bodes very well for us going into the months of June and July.
Manisha Gupta, Editor - Currency and Commodities, ET Now
Investors are worried over the outcome of the Indian elections (expected early next year) and its impact on the economy and the Rupee. In the near term, they would keenly await the trade data, IIP & inflation data next week and the RBI policy review on June 17th to get some idea on the policy moves.
Most Indian bankers are not ruling out a possibility of the rupee correcting a per cent or two from current levels. However, they expect the RBI to come in and intervene and stop the rupee from the kind of fall it witnessed in the month of May.
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