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Important Events to watch for next Week

What Silver Says

Silver is showing uptrend confirmed for a target of $18.04

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Akshaya Thithi in April - Go Long in Gold 

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Oil surges on Yemen air strikes, global stocks tumble

Crude prices rose as much as 6 percent on Thursday after Saudi Arabia and its allies launched air strikes on Yemen, pushing shares lower in Europe, the Middle East and Asia and lifting oil producers' currencies.

The military operations, including air strikes, targeted Iran-backed Houthi rebels besieging the southern Yemen city of Aden. Arab producers ship oil via the Gulf of Aden and Suez Canal to Europe.

"Oil is having a nice move after more geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over Yemen. Saudi has intervened via a military operation but, to be clear, (it) has at the moment led to no disruptions in oil supply,"

A vertiginous slide in oil prices, from more than $115 a barrel last June to a low of $45 in January, has been a major driver of financial markets in the past year and a key factor driving monetary policy.

The fall has cut living costs for consumers across the globe but has triggered fears of growth-sapping deflation. More than two dozen central banks have eased policy, driving yields on many low-risk bonds into negative territory.

Oil's rise was a fillip for the rouble, which gained 1.4 percent to 62.14 to the dollar . Russia is a major producer and the oil price is a key factor in government finances.

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SELF-DIRECTED TRADING & INVESTING MADE SIMPLE

Technical or Fundamental ?

Technical or Fundamental ?

Gold Rally

April gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last week's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off last week's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1205.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1168.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1199.30. 

Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1205.50. 

First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1168.50. Second support is March's low crossing at 1141.60.

Crude Reports

May crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins.

Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 

If May resumes this month's decilne, weekly support crossing at 39.44 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.30. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.00. 

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 44.03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 39.44.

•Crude oil futures surged on Wednesday, amid increasing geopolitical risks related to the advance of the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

•Global oil prices spiked by more than a dollar on Wednesday afternoon, as reports surfaced that Saudi Arabia is moving heavy military equipment, including artillery to its border with Yemen.

The buildup came in response to the seizure of the al-Anad base, a Yemen airbase that had previously been used by U.S. troops in their fight against Al-Qaeda.

•Yemen is strategically located on the Bab el-Mandab, a strait that connects the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea. In mid-November, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) ranked the Bab el-Mandab the fourth-largest chokepoint in the world for global oil transport (3.8 million barrels per day).

•Oil traders are sensitive to risky geopolitical news involving Saudi Arabia, which has 16% of the world's oil reserves and maintains the world's largest crude oil production capacity.

The developments in Yemen offset relatively soft inventory data released on Wednesday afternoon. In its weekly report, the EIA said that U.S. crude inventories for the week ending March 20, increased by 8.2 million barrels from the previous week.

This is Why Commodities are Traded..

Gold And Silver

Gold And Silver Projections

Gold and oil have a complicated relationship with the dollar

Gold and oil have a complicated relationship with the dollar

The most common excuse for the recent strength in the prices for gold and oil in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s meeting last week has been the drop in the U.S. dollar, but the two commodities don’t always have an inverse relationship with the greenback.

The general rule of thumb has been that commodities priced in dollars often move in the opposite direction of the currency, as moves in the U.S. unit can influence the attractiveness of those commodities to holders of other currencies.



“All other things being equal, a rising dollar means a falling gold price,”

Why Copper gained yesterday?

Copper clings to gains on output halt at Indonesia mine.

Copper steadied on Friday after rallying 3 percent the session before, with production stopped at one of the world's biggest copper mines as workers blocked access.

Production has been halted at Freeport-McMoRan Inc's copper mine in Indonesia as more than 50 workers blocked an access road to the Grasberg site for a fourth consecutive day, union officials said.

PIVOT POINTS FOR 20-03-2015

EURO/USD PROJECTIONS

This chart say euro could plunge another 30%: Top technician

Oil may plunge 10% this week

Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil this week could see a settlement below $40 a barrel for the first time since February of 2009.

A drop below $40 this week is “definitely in the cards if everything plays out right,” he said. Such a fall would translate into a roughly 10% drop in crude-oil futures prices trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after a similar percentage slide last week.

Here are five of the reasons everybody believes sub-$40 oil prices are possible as early as this week:

• Contract expirations tend to add volatility to futures markets. The April contract for Brent crude on the ICE Futures exchange expires at the close Monday, while the April contract for WTI crude traded on Nymex expires at the close on Friday.
• The Federal Reserve, in a statement on monetary policy due Wednesday, is widely expected to remove its pledge to be “patient” in raising short-term interest rates, making way for an interest rate hike as soon as June. That would likely boost the U.S. dollar — and pressure dollar-denominated oil price.
• The U.S. Energy Information Administration will report its weekly petroleum inventory data Wednesday. It is expected to show another larger build in crude inventories, said Zahir. U.S. crude stockpiles have posted increases for nine weeks straight.
• Supplies at Cushing, Okla., crude’s U.S. storage hub, are approaching levels the market has never seen before, Zahir said. Storage capacity is filling up.
• Oil prices on Monday failed to get a boost even as the dollar weakened, showing how “fundamentally weak crude is,” said Zahir. “We need production to come off and until demand picks up here in the U.S. or some shale production comes off crude will, in my opinion, witness short-lived rallies, while it stays in this well entrenched downtrend, he added.

Daily Pivot Points

Daily Pivot Points