Friday, April 17, 2015

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Sunday, March 29, 2015

Important Events to watch for next Week

What Silver Says

Silver is showing uptrend confirmed for a target of $18.04

Buy Gold

Akshaya Thithi in April - Go Long in Gold

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Buy Crude

Oil surges on Yemen air strikes, global stocks tumble

Crude prices rose as much as 6 percent on Thursday after Saudi Arabia and its allies launched air strikes on Yemen, pushing shares lower in Europe, the Middle East and Asia and lifting oil producers' currencies.

The military operations, including air strikes, targeted Iran-backed Houthi rebels besieging the southern Yemen city of Aden. Arab producers ship oil via the Gulf of Aden and Suez Canal to Europe.

"Oil is having a nice move after more geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over Yemen. Saudi has intervened via a military operation but, to be clear, (it) has at the moment led to no disruptions in oil supply,"

A vertiginous slide in oil prices, from more than $115 a barrel last June to a low of $45 in January, has been a major driver of financial markets in the past year and a key factor driving monetary policy.

The fall has cut living costs for consumers across the globe but has triggered fears of growth-sapping deflation. More than two dozen central banks have eased policy, driving yields on many low-risk bonds into negative territory.

Oil's rise was a fillip for the rouble, which gained 1.4 percent to 62.14 to the dollar . Russia is a major producer and the oil price is a key factor in government finances.

Gold Targets Achieved

SELF-DIRECTED TRADING & INVESTING MADE SIMPLE

Technical or Fundamental ?

Gold Rally

April gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last week's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off last week's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1205.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1168.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1199.30.

Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1205.50.

First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1168.50. Second support is March's low crossing at 1141.60.

Crude Reports

May crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins.

Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

If May resumes this month's decilne, weekly support crossing at 39.44 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 49.30. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.00.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 44.03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 39.44.

•Crude oil futures surged on Wednesday, amid increasing geopolitical risks related to the advance of the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

•Global oil prices spiked by more than a dollar on Wednesday afternoon, as reports surfaced that Saudi Arabia is moving heavy military equipment, including artillery to its border with Yemen.

The buildup came in response to the seizure of the al-Anad base, a Yemen airbase that had previously been used by U.S. troops in their fight against Al-Qaeda.

•Yemen is strategically located on the Bab el-Mandab, a strait that connects the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea. In mid-November, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) ranked the Bab el-Mandab the fourth-largest chokepoint in the world for global oil transport (3.8 million barrels per day).

•Oil traders are sensitive to risky geopolitical news involving Saudi Arabia, which has 16% of the world's oil reserves and maintains the world's largest crude oil production capacity.

The developments in Yemen offset relatively soft inventory data released on Wednesday afternoon. In its weekly report, the EIA said that U.S. crude inventories for the week ending March 20, increased by 8.2 million barrels from the previous week.

This is Why Commodities are Traded..

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Gold And Silver

Gold And Silver Projections

Gold and oil have a complicated relationship with the dollar

The most common excuse for the recent strength in the prices for gold and oil in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s meeting last week has been the drop in the U.S. dollar, but the two commodities don’t always have an inverse relationship with the greenback.

The general rule of thumb has been that commodities priced in dollars often move in the opposite direction of the currency, as moves in the U.S. unit can influence the attractiveness of those commodities to holders of other currencies.

“All other things being equal, a rising dollar means a falling gold price,”

Friday, March 20, 2015

Why Copper gained yesterday?

Copper clings to gains on output halt at Indonesia mine.

Copper steadied on Friday after rallying 3 percent the session before, with production stopped at one of the world's biggest copper mines as workers blocked access.

Production has been halted at Freeport-McMoRan Inc's copper mine in Indonesia as more than 50 workers blocked an access road to the Grasberg site for a fourth consecutive day, union officials said.

PIVOT POINTS FOR 20-03-2015

EURO/USD PROJECTIONS

This chart say euro could plunge another 30%: Top technician

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

oil may plunge 10% this week

Oil may plunge 10% this week

Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil this week could see a settlement below $40 a barrel for the first time since February of 2009.

A drop below $40 this week is “definitely in the cards if everything plays out right,” he said. Such a fall would translate into a roughly 10% drop in crude-oil futures prices trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after a similar percentage slide last week.

Here are five of the reasons everybody believes sub-$40 oil prices are possible as early as this week:

Contract expirations tend to add volatility to futures markets. The April contract for Brent crude on the ICE Futures exchange expires at the close Monday, while the April contract for WTI crude traded on Nymex expires at the close on Friday.
The Federal Reserve, in a statement on monetary policy due Wednesday, is widely expected to remove its pledge to be “patient” in raising short-term interest rates, making way for an interest rate hike as soon as June. That would likely boost the U.S. dollar — and pressure dollar-denominated oil price.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will report its weekly petroleum inventory data Wednesday. It is expected to show another larger build in crude inventories, said Zahir. U.S. crude stockpiles have posted increases for nine weeks straight.
Supplies at Cushing, Okla., crude’s U.S. storage hub, are approaching levels the market has never seen before, Zahir said. Storage capacity is filling up.
Oil prices on Monday failed to get a boost even as the dollar weakened, showing how “fundamentally weak crude is,” said Zahir. “We need production to come off and until demand picks up here in the U.S. or some shale production comes off crude will, in my opinion, witness short-lived rallies, while it stays in this well entrenched downtrend, he added.

Daily Pivot Points

Dollar Index

Dollar Due For A Correction, All Eyes On Fed

Intraday Charts 17.3.2015

Charts & Projections 17.3.2015

Sunday, March 15, 2015

COMMODITIES AT GLANCE

Metals are failing to gain amid strong dollar but have so far held the levels steady. Performance this week at a glance in chart & table -

Gold - Gold sellers have so far failed to break $1150 level. If gold successfully holds the level, next week's FOMC meeting could become a make or break event like this month's NFP. Gold can fall even to $1040/troy ounce if key support gets broken. Immediate support lies at 1144 & resistance at 1166.

Silver - Silver, is trading in tight range of 21 cents today. Mint ratio is at 74.23, up 0.50% today. Prices might reach as low as $14/troy ounce as key level remains broken. Silver is currently trading at $15.5/troy ounce. Support lies at 14 & resistance at 16.6.
Copper - Copper is the best performer so far the week but remain cautious over the developments in China. Price pattern suggests loss towards 2.47 levels should the resistance at $ 2.72 holds. Immediate support lies at 2.59 & resistance at 2.67.

Gold	-1.11%
Silver	-2.14%
Copper	1.96%

Energy as an asset class is the worst performer in today's trading and this week's. Weekly performance at a glance in chart & table -

Oil (WTI) - WTI selloffs accelerated as expected after key support level got broken. WTI is yet to reach initial target of $42/ barrel. WTI is currently trading at $45.20/ barrel, down nearly 4% today. Immediate support lies at 42 and resistance at 48.3.

Oil (Brent) - Brent fell in today's trading but gained over the spreads. Brent-WTI spread is trading at $ 10.7, support lies at $8 and resistance at $13. Price pattern suggests a move towards $ 53/barrel is likely as key support at 58 was broken. Brent is trading at $56.09/barrel. Immediate support lies at 53.2 & resistance at 58.4.

Natural Gas - Natural gas prices fell as inventory shrinkage was lower than previous, however inventory fell below 5 year average. Natural Gas is currently trading at 2.69/mmbtu. Price range is squeezing, there might be breakout ahead. Immediate support lies at 2.65 & resistance at 2.87.

WTI	-8.67%
Brent	-5.95%
Natural Gas	-5.28%

Saturday, March 14, 2015

Could a gain in oil prices put the brakes on India’s economy?

A combination of low commodity prices, strong demographics and new leadership in government and the central bank mean India is set to grow by 7-8 percent annually for the next 10 years, according to Anand Shah, chief investment officer of BNP Paribas Investment Partners India. This could see the country become the world's third-biggest economy by around 2030 and the second-largest by 2040.

This year, the IMF forecast that India's growth would near that of China in 2015 and trump it in 2016.

As a net commodities importer, India is vulnerable to an upturn in oil prices. The country brings in around 70 percent of its oil consumption—worth 5.5 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP),

India had "survived" between 2011 and mid-2014 when oil was priced at $100 per barrel, albeit with "some fiscal concerns."

“People who think this will be a V-shape [rebound] and off we go again will be mistaken,”

Trader who called oil’s rout sees crude below $40

But that bounce faded fast. Nymex WTI crude ended Friday less than $1 away from a six-year low set earlier this year, extending a sharp weekly decline after theInternational Energy Agency said signs of price stability were a “facade” in the face of rising production.

Also, oil inventories continue to grow. Now, the big question is how much onshore storage capacity remains in the U.S., where crude inventories are at their highest level in more than 80 years, according to government data. King said there is a danger space could run out, leaving more oil to flood the physical market—a proposition that he expects to be tested in the next four weeks.

And despite falling rig counts, U.S. oil production is still around 1.2 million to 1.3 million barrels a day more than it was this time last year, King estimated.

U.S. adding 5 million barrels of oil to its reserves because of cheap prices

The U.S. is sitting on about 691 million barrels of oil in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), and with oil prices close to a five-year low set in January, the U.S. is looking to buy even more, soliciting bids for 5 million barrels of oil, worth about $224 million at the closing price on Friday, March 13, of $44.84 on NYMEX.

The Department of Energy said it plans to buy sweet crude for delivery for its Freeport, Texas, site between June 1 and July 31 and perhaps as early as May, according to a federal website.

The SPR is composed of four giant underground oil fields in Texas and Louisiana, and it sits awaiting a call from the president, in case oil supplies are disrupted.

Oil futures suffer nearly 10% weekly plunge

The number of U.S. rigs actively drilling for oil as of March 13 fell 56 rigs from last week to 866.

The IEA forecast average global oil demand of 93.5 million barrels a day for 2015.

Friday, March 13, 2015

Oil drops as IEA raises U.S. supply, storage concerns

Oil futures fell Friday after a monthly report from the International Energy Agency raised concerns that the glut of crude supplies and tightening storage capacity in the U.S. may cause prices to weaken further.

Goldman Sachs slashes euro forecast, sees dollar parity by September

Goldman Sachs slashes euro forecast, sees dollar parity by September.

The euro EURUSD, -1.01% is poised to continue its sharp slide against the dollar and is on track to reach parity with the greenback in September, analysts at Goldman Sachs said on Friday. They downgraded their six-month euro forecast to $1, from $1.10 expected previously. They also slashed the three-month forecast to $1.02 from $1.12, and cut the 12-month outlook to 95 cents from $1.08. By the end of 2017, Goldman analysts see the euro sliding to 80 cents, which would be the lowest ever for the shared currency. "We therefore expect more downside in the near term, with the expected removal of 'patient' at next week's FOMC [meeting] a key catalyst," they said in the note. The euro traded at $1.0575 on Friday, down from $1.0637 late Thursday in New York.